Hawaiian Pro

Surf Forecast | Hawaiian Pro

Nov 09, 2019

By Jonathan Warren

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Minor surf first couple days of event window (13th-14th)
  • Watching for sizable NW pulse for Friday the 15th and possibly with good conditions
  • Plenty of swell stacking up – possible solid surf around the 17th-18th with more to soon follow

INITIAL OUTLOOK  

For several days now, forecast models have been in good agreement that storm activity will flare up across the North Pacific as we move through next week. Starting Monday, there will be a series of at least two, possibly three, storms we'll need to watch closely. The first storm is projected to be quite strong (developing over Mon/Tues the 11th-12th+), but the track is not looking to be so great - pulling northward away from Hawaii and moving quickly. However, a second storm (developing over the 12th-14th+) is also projected to become pretty strong but taking a more favorable track - slower and eastward. Soon after that may be a third significant system to follow.  

The first pulse from this series of storms is currently lining up for a build over the 14th (mainly over the PM hours) with a peak on Friday the 15th and potentially delivering head-high to overhead surf to Haleiwa. The second pulse is lining up for around the 16th-18th (with a possible peak on the 17th), and this one is looking bigger, potentially with the North Shore going XL and Haleiwa becoming overwhelmed. However, Haleiwa will soon come back into play over the following days as this energy backs down, but will remain very solid. After that may see another sizable swell for around the 20th-21st. 

At this point, good conditions are lining up for the peak of the first swell (Friday the 15th), as an approaching front may deliver offshore southerly wind. However, as that same front nears and passes through Oahu, the wind may clock around to an unfavorable onshore west to north direction on Saturday the 16th. This unfavorable wind may possibly continue Sunday the 17th as well. Much will depend on the progress/timing of this front. Once it clears out, favorable easterly trade wind conditions are forecast to return.

Next update: Tuesday Nov 12th

Mid-month looking promising for solid swell

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